Coronary Artery Calcium Scoring Survival Predicted by Nomogram

HealthDay News — A simple-to-use nomogram can predict 5, 10, and 15-year survival among adults undergoing coronary artery calcium scoring (CACS), according to a study published in JACC: Cardiovascular Imaging.

Bríain Ó Hartaigh, PhD, from the Dalio Institute of Cardiovascular Imaging in New York City, and colleagues developed and validated a simple-to-use nomogram for prediction of survival among asymptomatic adults undergoing CACS. The nomogram was developed in 9715 individuals undergoing CACS and included age, sex, smoking, hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes, family history of coronary artery disease, and CACS. A prognostic index (PI) was developed, summing the number of risk points corresponding to weighted covariates. The nomogram was validated in a separate cohort of 7824 adults undergoing CACS.

The researchers found that during median follow-up of 14.6 years and 9.4 years, there were 936 and 294 deaths in the derivation and validation sets, respectively. The model effectively predicted the probability of 5, 10, and 15-year survival. In the derivation and validation sets, the PI displayed high discrimination (C-index, 0.74 and 0.76, respectively). In each dataset, the predicted and actual estimates of survival according to PI quartiles were similar.

“A simple-to-use nomogram effectively predicts 5, 10 and 15-year survival for asymptomatic adults undergoing screening for cardiac risk factors,” the authors write. “This nomogram may be considered for use in clinical care.”

One author disclosed financial ties to the biopharmaceutical and health care industries.

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Ó Hartaigh B, Gransar H, Callister T, et al. Development and validation of a simple-to-use nomogram for predicting 5-, 10-, and 15- year survival in asymptomatic adults undergoing coronary artery calcium scoring. JACC Cardiovasc Imaging. 2017 Jun 9. pii: S1936-878X(17)30449-7. doi: 10.1016/j.jcmg.2017.03.018.