Novel Clinical and Genetic Score Can Identify High Risk for Atrial Fibrillation and Stroke

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Researchers developed and validated a clinical and genetic score to identify individuals at high risk for atrial fibrillation and stroke.

A novel clinical and genetic score – Predict-Atrial Fibrillation (AF) – was found to identify individuals at high risk for AF and stroke, according to study results intended to be presented at the annual meeting of the American College of Cardiology (ACC.20).

By leveraging data from a cohort of 500,000 individuals, the United Kingdom Biobank, researchers derived and validated Predict-AF, which was based on the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology AF score as well as an AF polygenic risk score. They examined the rates of incident AF and stroke in individuals considered to be at high risk for AF (5-year risk, ≥5%) vs individuals aged ≥65 years.

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Compared with individuals aged ≥65 years, among the 474,406 participants (mean age, 57 years; 55% women) with clinical and genetic data and no history of AF, Predict-AF was found to be strongly associated with 5-year AF (hazard ratio, 3.17 per standard deviation; 95% CI, 3.08-3.35) and had greater power in detecting the risk for AF and stroke (c-index: individuals with high Predict-AF: AF, 0.780; stroke, 0.703; individuals ≥65 years: AF, 0.624; stroke, 0.606). Results also indicated that compared with individuals aged ≥65 years, participants at high risk for AF had twice the rate of 5-year AF (3.6% vs 7.5%, respectively; P <.01) and stroke (1.1% vs 1.9%, respectively; P <.01).

Overall, Predict-AF was useful in identifying individuals at high risk for AF and stroke. Researchers concluded, “By facilitating absolute risk estimation, this tool will enable precision-guided screening for AF.”


Khurshid S, Weng L-C, Trinquart L, et al. A precision-guided approach to inform atrial fibrillation screening. Intended to be presented at: American College of Cardiology 69th Annual Scientific Session. March 28-30, 2020; Chicago, IL. Presentation 917-06.